COMPAMIR
High-Purity Fact Pipeline
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High-Purity Fact Pipeline
Motu Research, NZ Herald, Political parties
New Zealand
June 2026
Verified: June 18, 2026
"The coalition's chance of re-election is currently estimated at 74.3%. The model now accounts for The Opportunity Party (TOP), which has a 14.9% chance of crossing the 5% threshold. If TOP enters Parliament, the current coalition may struggle to form a government."