Study links severe drought and El Niño to increased risk of armed conflict

Source:Yale Environment 360

02 — Who / Subject

Sylvia Dee (Rice University) and research team

03 — Where / Locus

Global

04 — When / Temporality

May 18, 2026

Verified: May 18, 2026

05 — Why / Core Summary

"Research analyzing 555 armed conflicts from 1950 to 2023 shows a correlation between climate shocks and violence. El Niño-induced droughts significantly increase conflict risk in Central America and southern Africa. The Indian Ocean Dipole also contributes to conflict risk in Southeast Asia and the Horn of Africa."

Conflict Analysis

Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, this study provinformations empirical evinformationnce for the climate-security nexus.

Recommended Background Resource

Affiliate / AdAI Curation

Climate Change and Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars

Author: Hans Günter Brauch

This book provides a comprehensive academic framework for understanding how climate-induced resource scarcity acts as a threat multiplier for geopolitical instability and armed conflict, aligning perfectly with the study's findings on El Niño and drought.

Explore Background Book (Amazon)

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